TxLege Analysis: How are key races playing out online?

Followers, posts, engagement, and top topics for every statewide candidate and 13 key legislative races.

This is part three of our three-part series looking at the online conversation around the Texas midterms. If you missed last week’s analysis, you can view it here: Part 1: How the Midterms Are Playing Out Online Part 2: Democrats vs Republicans

We’re on the edge of our seats waiting to see how the midterm election plays out next Tuesday. While we wait, we’ve been nerding out over polling, early vote totals, and even prediction markets. None of these alone can tell us what will happen, but they offer interesting insights. Another data point that can provide interesting context is online enthusiasm. While not every social media engagement is positive and not every follower is a vote, we wanted to see what we could glean by measuring audience size, activity levels, topics, and engagement in statewide races and 12 of the closest Texas House and Senate races. Our analysis runs from January 1 through September 30, 2026.

In nearly every statewide race, the Republican candidate has more followers, but the Democrats get more engagement per post (with the exception of the Lt. Governor and Railroad Commissioner races). Will this online enthusiasm translate to in-person turnout for Democrats? As of Thursday, based on primary history, Democrats are enjoying higher early voting turnout compared to Republicans, but we still need to see what the final days of early voting and Election Day hold.

    • Data Source: Meltwater

    • Dates: Jan. 1 – Sept. 30, 2026

    • Posts: every post, repost and quote post from a candidate’s account on X, Facebook, Instagram or TikTok, including personal, official, and campaign accounts.

    • Candidates: 2026 candidates for statewide office, U.S. Congress, and the Texas House and Senate (408 tracked; 296 posted)

    • Engagement:

      • Facebook: reactions (including likes), comments and shares

      • Instagram: likes and comments

      • X: likes, replies, reposts and quote posts

      • TikTok: likes, comments and shares

    • Character limit: Our social listening tool captures only the first ~145 characters of each post, and more than half of posts hit that limit. Topics are tagged from that text, anything mentioned later in a long caption, or only in a video or image, is missed. 

    • Reposts: Reposts count toward post totals but carry no engagement of their own. About 30% of candidate posts on X are reposts.

Key takeaways for statewide races

  • Again, Republicans post more; Democrats get more engagement per post. Republican candidates posted more frequently in six of eight races. However, engagement is flipped – Democratic candidates earned more engagement per post in six of eight races.

  • Democrats lead engagement at the top of the ticket. James Talarico (53.9 M) and Gina Hinojosa (5.81 M) out-engage Ken Paxton (7.04 M) and Greg Abbott (3.77 M).

  • The biggest engagement gaps: Clayton Tucker leads Nate Sheets on engagement by 68x, Bo French leads Jon Rosenthal by 41x, and Talarico leads Paxton by 8x.

  • Most down-ballot races are quiet. No candidate for attorney general, comptroller, or land commissioner topped 200K engagements total. Republican Railroad Commission candidate Bo French is the exception for down-ballot races: with a whopping 5.05 M engagements, he makes up the second-highest engagement of the statewide Republicans, trailing only Ken Paxton (7.04 M). French even leads Greg Abbott (3.77 M).

Key takeaways for Texas House and Texas Senate races

  • Of the 13 Texas House and Senate races that we analyzed, we see many of the same patterns as the Statewide races. Republicans posted more (8,432 posts to 4,855), but Democrats earned nearly twice the engagement (534K to 289K) and more per post in 10 of 13 races.

  • Democratic challengers are out-engaging Republican incumbents. Democrats lead engagement in four of the nine races that have a Republican incumbent: HD 63, HD 108, HD 112, and HD 122. In HD 108, Allison Mitchell has 22 times Rep. Morgan Meyer's engagement.

  • Facebook was utilized heavily in local races. Facebook was the most-used platform for 20 of 26 legislative candidates, compared to 5 of 14 statewide nominees.

Statewide Races

U.S. Senate: Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico

Talarico has more than nine times Paxton's followers and nearly eight times his engagement. Paxton's audience is primarily on X, which brings in 86% of his engagement; Talarico leans heavily into TikTok. Both draw the most engagement when they post about President Trump.

Governor: Greg Abbott vs. Gina Hinojosa

Greg Abbott has nearly six times Gina Hinojosa's followers and posted three times as often, but Hinojosa has more engagement (5.81M to 3.77M). Abbott’s top topic is education, while Hinojosa’s is taxes.

Lieutenant Governor: Dan Patrick vs. Vikki Goodwin

Dan Patrick has more than nine times Vicki Goodwin's followers and twice her engagement, but they average almost the same engagement per post (455 to 446). Both get most of their engagement on Facebook and the most when they post about President Trump.

Attorney General: Mayes Middleton vs. Nathan Johnson

Nathan Johnson posted less than half as often as Middleton but has more engagement (124K to 95K) and three times the engagement per post.

Comptroller: Don Huffines vs. Sarah Eckhardt

Don Huffines has nearly five times Sarah Eckhardt's followers, posts 3.5 times as often, and leads on overall engagement (191K to 108K). However, Eckhardt averages twice the engagement per post.

Land Commissioner: Dawn Buckingham vs. Benjamin Flores

Land Commissioner has been the quietest statewide race, with about 2K posts and 33K engagements combined. Buckingham posted almost six times as often as Flores and has three times his engagement.

Agriculture Commissioner: Nate Sheets vs. Clayton Tucker

Clayton Tucker has 12 times Nate Sheets' followers and 68 times his engagement. His top topic is data centers, one of the two topics that kept growing all year.

Railroad Commissioner: Bo French vs. Jon Rosenthal

Bo French posted nearly 10 times as often as Jon Rosenthal (5,907 posts to 621) and has 41 times his engagement (5.05M to 123K), the most of any down-ballot nominee. X brings all of French's engagement, and his top topic is Islam. Rosenthal's top topic is energy, the industry the Railroad Commission regulates.

Texas Senate & Texas House races

Texas Senate District 9: Leigh Wambsganss vs. Taylor Rehmet

Taylor Rehmet has about 1.5 times Leigh Wambsganss's engagement on a third as many posts (399 to 1,264). Both get the majority of their engagement on Facebook. Rehmet's top topic is the economy; Wambsganss's is faith and religion.

Texas House District 34: Denise Villalobos vs. Stephanie (Guerrero) Saenz

Denise Villalobos has more than eight times Stephanie (Guerrero) Saenz's engagement (16.2K to 1.9K) and about seven times her followers.

Texas House District 37: Janie Lopez vs. Oziel "Ozzie" Ochoa Jr.

Janie Lopez posted more than seven times as often as Oziel "Ozzie" Ochoa and has nearly twice his engagement (22.1K to 12.0K). Ochoa averages four times the engagement per post.

Texas House District 52: Caroline Harris Davila vs. Chris Jimenez

Caroline Harris Davila has more than twice Chris Jimenez's engagement (15.6K to 7.1K) and 14 times his followers.

Texas House District 63: Ben Bumgarner vs. Denise Wooten

The closest race: Denise Wooten edges Ben Bumgarner (6.9K to 6.1K) on engagement with less than half as many posts.

Texas House District 74: Robert Garza vs. Eddie Morales Jr.

Robert Garza posted only once before October, so this race is one-sided online. He has picked up since, with 28 Facebook posts in October as of Oct. 28. Immigration brings in most of Eddie Morales Jr.'s engagement (40.8K of 63.7K).

Texas House District 94: Cheryl Bean vs. Katie O'Brien Duzan

The candidates are nearly even on engagement (22.8K to 21.0K), but Cheryl Bean posted 14 times as often as Katie O'Brien (3,528 posts to 252). Bean’s top topic is faith and religion while O'Brien Duzan's is election integrity.

Texas House District 97: John McQueeney vs. Beth Llewellyn McLaughlin

Joh McQueeney has nearly five times Beth Llewellyn McLaughlin's engagement (13.7K to 2.9K), though McLaughlin posted more (755 posts to 535).

Texas House District 108: Morgan Meyer vs. Allison Mitchell

Allison Mitchell has 22 times Morgan Meyer's engagement (67.9K to 3.1K). TikTok brings in half of Mitchell’s engagement.

Texas House District 112: Angie Chen Button vs. Zach Herbert

Challenger Zach Herbert has about 3.5 times Angie Chen Button's engagement (16.2K to 4.6K) and posted about 3.5 times as often.

Texas House District 118: Jorge Borrego vs. Kristian Carranza

Kristian Carranza has seven times Jorge Borrego's engagement (72.6K to 10.2K) and about 3.7 times his followers. X is the biggest platform for both.

Texas House District 121: Marc LaHood vs. Zach Dunn

Marc LaHood leads on engagement (9.7K to 7.6K) with 3.5 times as many posts. Zach Dunn averages nearly three times the engagement per post.

Texas House District 122: Mark Dorazio vs. Shelly Nickels

Texas HD122 is the quietest race, with about 1,100 engagements combined. Mark Dorazio posted 13 times from January through September; Shelly Nickels leads on engagement (762 to 318).